Guides · Sealed

When do sealed TCG prices bottom — and how long should you hold?

Every sealed buyer knows the folklore: boxes dip after release, then appreciate once the print run dries up. We wanted the folklore as numbers, so we indexed 220 sealed products (booster boxes, ETBs, bundles across MTG and Pokémon, 2021–2026) to their release-month price and tracked the median path.

The J-curve, measured

Three findings that should change how you buy

1. The bottom comes early — month 4, not year 2. The median product troughs just 4 months after release, at about 14% below release price. If you're waiting a year for the "post-hype dip," the median case says you already missed it.

2. The hold is 18–24 months, not a flip. From the trough, the median product returned +34% at 6 months, +58% at 12, +86% at 18, and +158% at 24. The flat stretch through month 12 (median index 105) is where impatient money gives up — right before the curve turns.

3. Chasing spikes loses. In our separate walk-forward backtest, products that had just run up over 60 days systematically underperformed their peer group over the following 6 months. The dip-then-rise profile — young product, deep discount — is what historically beat peers. Buy the dip. Sell the spike.

Methodology: median indexed price across n=220 series with release dates and ≥8 monthly observations; trough stats from n=33 series with dense first-24-month coverage. Historical medians, not guarantees — survivorship and tracking bias apply. Not financial advice.